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Homepage »Industry » Interview
For foreign airlines, the MC-21-400 looks super attractive
Tuesday January 9, 2018 08:50 MSK / Vladimir Karnozov
On the eve of MAKS-2017, the general director of Ilyushin Finance Co. Alexander Rubtsov told AVIA.RU about the company's plans and prospects for the MC-21 project on the market.
Alexander Rubtsov
CEO of Ilyushin Finance Co. (IFC)

- Alexander Ivanovich, recently completed the first flight prototype of the main liner of the next generation of MC-21. Meanwhile, in the west, new versions and models of aircraft of similar size have already been put into operation: the European Airbus A320neo, the Canadian Bombardier CS300, the American Boeing 737MAX. Passes flight tests and the Chinese C919. There are a lot of competitors. What does Ilyushin Finance Co. hope for and other leasing companies that placed orders for the Russian aircraft?

- Due to the fact that the first narrow-body liner of the new generation was brought to the market by Europeans and Americans, and then by Canadians, we, Russians, have to push the elbows of producers of other countries. According to various estimates, the demand for narrow-bodied trunk liners over the next 20 years is estimated at 24-27 thousand cars. Ten thousand of them are already contracted. In a word, at least a third of the market has already "left", moreover, it is the most creditworthy and well standing on its feet, which means that it is the most interesting and attractive for investments. We left the segments of the second and third tier. Perhaps, the most interesting here is the fast-growing new segments of the market.

- At the exhibition in Paris, Boeing company presented an updated version of the market forecast for the next 20 years. They introduced a new term, "middle of the market", where the Boeing 757 and more modern models came in to replace it.

- Yes, we paid attention to new moments in the long-term market forecast from Boeing. In the MC-21 family, a similar machine may appear. IFC actively lobbies an extended version of MC-21-400. It turns out a beautiful plane. All airlines with whom we conduct a dialogue, unanimously say: "do not waste time and money, do MC-21-400 immediately!" The reason is economic. The cost price of transportation of one passenger for a distance of one kilometer is close to three cents. In short, the MS-21-400 turns out to be close in economy and compare the efficiency of transportation work with wide-bodied liners. So successful the plane can turn out, that practically it will not have foreign analogues. According to the number of seats - 256 - it will be more than the most capacious options Boeing 737 (option MAX 10) and Airbus A321neo. The MC-21-400 variant differs from the base model -300 with a new wing and new engines, and, most importantly, with a large fuselage. True, this is not exactly how Boeing understands such machines in its definition of "Middle of the market". They talk about a two-pass airplane with a somewhat longer range - "limited-intercontinental" - over 7-8 thousand kilometers. Of course, the MC-21-400 will have a slightly shorter flight range with full load. But after all Boeing says about the need to create a completely new machine, the creation of which will take a decade, and we, if we make an effort, we can build a prototype in a couple of years.

- Is it necessary to create a new wing for MC-21-400?

- Various opinions are expressed on this score. Personally, I think that you can do with a "palliative" solution. Namely: to make an elongated fuselage and an enlarged center wing, and to it to connect the same detachable parts of the wing (DPW) from МС-21-300. I note that such solutions are used in the practice of foreign manufacturers, when they develop a basic machine. At the same time, the wingspan is slightly increased due to a specially designed centroplane. For example, this was done by the Antonov CC when creating, based on the An-148 base, the AN-178 military transport. "Antonov" increased the center wing, and to it docked the DPW from the An-148.

- It turns out that the production of Tu-204/214 was suspended in vain, because the aircraft of this family were specially designed for the transportation of 200-214 passengers, that is, in capacity were close to the Boeing "middle of the market"?

- No, I hold a different opinion on this matter. The fact that the Tu-204/214 was created as our response to the appearance of the Boeing 757. Many characteristics of these types of aircraft are close. These machines have lived their century, they have been removed from mass production, and the surviving samples "reach" the remaining resource. May God grant them another ten to fifteen years to fly as part of charter airlines and state aviation. As for the regular air carrier market, in my opinion, the future lies behind the MC-21 and its new variants. Moreover, it is necessary to invest efforts in option "400".

- Since the first prototype MC-21-300 entered the flight tests, we will assume that the basic model has taken place.

- From the designers' point of view, "yes", but MC-21-300 should be brought to the series. Therefore, the second task that I see is to increase the rate of output of finished products. At the moment, scanty volumes are laid. From year to year

It is assumed 4-13-23-30-40-50 and, as a result, the output for the maximum output of 70 aircraft annually. From the point of view of the global market, with the needs of tens of thousands of machines of this dimension, these are ridiculous figures. Let me remind you that Airbus and Boeing each announced plans to release more than seventy narrow-bodied liners of a new generation every month. If we keep the plans for a maximum of 70 MC-21 per year, then in fact we will get a unique in terms of technical characteristics, but a small-scale aircraft, with expensive parts and monopolized service structures. To prevent this from happening again, it is necessary to increase the seriality, to create competition in the market of providers of IT services, training and supplies of spare parts. A narrow-body aircraft should be available to airlines in every sense of the word.

- At MAKS-2017, the Russian Post exposes the Tu-204-100C. Was this aircraft delivered to the operator by your company?

- Yes. This is the machine that was delivered to the Post of Russia by our company. Previously, it was operated by Transaero. Today, the Tu-class aircraft, which we transferred to the fleet of the Russian Post, are flying. This operator has a large volume of traffic. They "go" to the North, serve the Far East, began to fly to China. In short, cargo "carcasses" are in demand and are actively exploited. The Russian Post is building plans to expand its fleet. We welcome this in every possible way.

- Is it possible to speak in this case about a "success story", a positive example?

- We believe that the aviators of the Russian Post are good fellows. The organization is developing a new business for itself, and doing it very successfully.

- What about the Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SSJ100)? Does your company deal with this machine, taking into account the fact that the main work on this program was undertaken by GTLK?

- GTLK has completely taken over this segment of the market. We believe that, given the volume of capital that our colleagues from this company received from the state budget, no one can really compete with them in this segment.

- As far as we know, GTLK has not only funding from the state budget of the Russian Federation, but also large Chinese loans.

- Yes, and therefore I say that the GTLK are great! We must give them their due in that they pulled up everything they could to promote the "Superjet". Thanks to them, the machine keeps on the market. It seems to me that we should stimulate sales of domestic aircraft in the global sales market. And here the agreement with CityJet can be considered a great success. However, so far the Irish airline has taken only a few Russian-made aircraft, all of which currently operate under the scheme of short-term "wet leasing". But this is also a success.

- So, from the point of view of your company, the MC-21 looks much more attractive?

- From our point of view, as a leasing company, the answer is: "Yes, certainly". We set ourselves the task of bringing this product to the market. This task seems to us to be extremely important and, at the same time, uneasy. All the experience that has been accumulated by the IFC, we are ready to mobilize to fulfill the task.

- A year ago, when the MC-21-300 was rolled out, the Azerbaijani Airlines (AZAL) expressed a desire to take on lease several such cars.

- They are ready now, and continue to monitor the situation. We proceed from the fact that between AZAL and IFC there is an agreement of intentions. At the same time, while promoting the MC-21 to the market, we will primarily focus on Russian airlines. We are planning to sign two agreements in the near future, and if it turns out - then three, and all - with Russian air carriers.

- I will assume that the speech, it seems, is about VIM-Avia and Red Wings.

- Yes, it's about them. In addition to these two airlines, which previously openly expressed interest in the MC-21-300, we also strive to formalize on paper the agreements reached with another regional airline. We expect that we can go out with her to an agreement that can be signed by the end of the MAKS-2017 airshow or a little later. As for VIM-Avia and Red Wings, the documents between them and IFC are ready for signing. With VIM-Avia - a framework agreement on intentions, and with Red Wings - a firm contract.

- Does the IFC conduct a dialogue with other Russian airlines that previously expressed their desire to acquire MC-21, but have not yet made a choice in favor of a specific financing option?

- Perhaps you are alluding to "IrAero"? This airline has signed a direct agreement with Irkut. MC-21 was also interested in Nord-Avia, but now this airline has formed a single consortium with Red Wings.

- The MAKS salon is an event that Russians are looking forward to for two years. People want positive news. Can such be expected from the IFC?

- Yes, you can. First, the positive news will be in the line of our interaction with Red Wings and VIM-Avia. In addition, IFC is in talks with European airlines. Not all of them will send delegations to the salon in Zhukovsky, but they regularly communicate with us outside the framework of public events of this kind. The conversation is about a large consolidated order, potentially from 20 to 60 machines. Of particular interest is the MC-21-400, since it is this model that can prove to be the best in the fleet of airlines with large tourist flows. I can not call names of airlines ahead of time, it is better to wait for the signing of specific agreements. I will only say that among the air carriers of Western Europe there are quite stable, with a history of presence on the market for decades, and they show interest in the MC-21.

- How do you explain the fact that, even after the launch of the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo, they continue to be interested in Russian aircraft technology? What is the reason for this?

- European aviators carefully analyze the proposals for all aircraft that appear on the market, with reference to its network of routes. Their interest lies in the field of narrow-bodied liners with a capacity of 180 seats and above. And most of all they need airplanes in the dimension of MC-21-400. Therefore, they hold meetings with the UAC and its subsidiaries. We expect that by the end of the year some airlines will "ripen" before announcing a tender for the delivery of aircraft of this dimension. Perhaps the interest in the UAC products is also explained by the fact that for Boeing and Airbus, with their large-scale production, large customers are needed, with orders for hundreds of aircraft. And those who need 20-30 cars - they, of course, are also not superfluous for the grandees of the world aircraft industry, but they will never take the position of the "starting customers". But to become a "starting customer" for MC-21 and its modifications - such a prospect may turn out to be a much more interesting offer for them, both on the aircraft itself and on the entire accompanying package. In any case, we observe their interest. Representatives of European airlines visited the rollout of MC-21-300, they monitor the flight tests and in general for the news on the program. We are negotiating with them in order to reach a deal.

- "Irkut has long stated its intention to create a" four-hundredth "modification of the basic MC-21, but subsequently decided to concentrate its main efforts on the MC-21-300 and pushed other modifications" for a long time. "

- Yes, it really looks like you said. We believe that it would be quite logical to postpone the release of MC-21-200, and to put forth the "four hundred." Not only our specialists insist on such a development of events, but also foreign ones - Germans, French, representatives of Asian countries - with whom we communicate. All in one voice say that the MC-21-400 looks super attractive. Foreign airlines did not believe that it was technically possible to create a narrow-bodied liner with such high performance until we showed them the preliminary calculations for the MC-21-400.

- It is known that MС-21 is offered with a choice of engines Pratt & Whitney PW1500G and Perm PD-14. Is there any practical interest in the latter?

- We intend, having agreed with the UAC and the UDK, to take four cars with PD-14, for the airline Red Wings. So we have our plans for PD-14, given the long-standing relationship that has developed between IFC and enterprises from Perm. It is important that Red Wings for a long time exploits the Tu-204 with Perm engines of the family PD-90A. According to the plans of the air carrier, they will transport passengers for a few more years on "carcasses". Wait for our announcements at MAKS-2017!

- It turns out that the tests that pass the prototypes of PD-14, are encouraging?

- Let's just say: the tests are really going on. The question is in the results that were received. We are not transmitting the details, but the whole process is on, which can not but rejoice.

- How much do airlines need a new generation of aircraft with reduced fuel consumption, in conditions when the price of oil has decreased, and is currently held at the turn of $ 50 per barrel? At a low price for oil, some other parameters come to the fore, rather than fuel consumption, do not they?

- It is possible to look at the influence of oil prices on the transport system in different ways. However, the general trend is that competition in the transport services market is only intensifying. What in such situations manufacturers and airlines can offer the market? Actually, that's why we are watching the interest of a number of air carriers of Europe and Asia to the MС-21. Speaking figuratively, "Boeing" and "Airbus" are available to all. Instead, they are offered an airplane, whose flight time is the same 4-5 hours, but which, with a close fuel consumption, provides 30-40 seats more. In short, 15% more capacity at close weight and consumption of aviation kerosene. Do not forget about the higher level of comfort in the  MС-21cabin. In a word, we have several weighty arguments in favor of Russian products. Most importantly, will we be able to provide an adequate cost for maintaining airworthiness (MAW)? It should be the same or lower than that of foreign competitors. If we provide MAW - everything, our market! Let us recall the well-known assertion of Karl Marx about the kind of crime the capitalist will go if he shows the corresponding profit …

- I would like to hear your opinion on the great work that the UAC and other structures are carrying out to improve the after-sales service system of SSJ100. Investments are also promised in the creation of spare parts stores, and training of personnel. Is it worth something immediately to provide for MC-21? Or is it better to gradually transfer the experience of SSJ100 to MC-21 as it is acquired and tested?

- Meetings with the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation were held on this topic, and the President of the country is to meet. We put emphasis on everywhere: before the car starts to fly in airlines, for every $ 100 million of products there should be warehouses with spare parts for $ 20 million. So it should be, starting from the first day of active operation of a new type of aircraft. These warehouses should be created not only in the central airport, but also in the bases of the airlines. They must also be at turning points located along the routes of flights of aircraft. Minimum "technical first aid kits" where there are spare wheels, brakes, batteries and everything else, without which there is no provision for a turn-around time. In a word, spare parts should be available, and the corresponding work should be done ahead of time.

Meanwhile, the analysis of the initial operation of the SSJ100 shows little attention to the issues of maintaining the serviceability of the aircraft at the time the type of operation is put into operation. The lessons of the "superjet" should be taken into account. We must closely study the experience of the introduction of the An-148, and we have it in our country, and a rich one. It absorbs the actions of Antonov, VABS, Motor Sich and IFC. And we were able to provide a daily raid of 8.5 hours on the scheduled plane. But they started with four. And today, these planes are shown in both Angara and Saratov Airlines flights. In a word, the IFC has accumulated some experience in launching and maintaining the An-148 operation, which gives us grounds to state that we know how to build a system of MAW at a decent level. It is worth studying the experience of the Canadian company Bombardier - just for the sixth month of active operation, the C Series aircraft show 97% readiness for departure, 12 hours a day when flying on an aircraft.

- For the sake of justice, it should be noted that not everything went smoothly during the initial operation of the C Series, the information on this account came in different, not always rainbow.

- Now we note that the situation for the C Series has developed good. I, for example, monitor the operation of CS300 in Air Baltic. Every quarter we send a delegation to Riga. First there were questions about the power plant. True, not as large as the media wrote about it. We use the information from the source: Air Baltic is very happy with CS300. Riga aviators are planning to increase the initial order for this type of car - in addition to twenty cars to buy ten more.

- How, in your opinion, is it necessary to pass the initial stage of operation of MC-21? Do not you think that it would be more expedient to first hold it on Russian territory, in some sort of separate airline?

- Several scenarios are considered in this account: Aeroflot, Aeroflot and other airlines, and only others. My vision is the following: there should be a pair of Russian second-tier airlines that are motivated to fly in such a way as to receive the highest return from the use of new domestic aircraft. Undoubtedly, the Aeroflot brand should be present. At the same time, experts of the national air carrier should know that similar cars will fly in other airlines. We see what happens with the "superjets" of Aeroflot - from the general fleet of 30 units regularly flies 8-10. Indeed, aviation equipment has shortcomings, which the carrier indicates. On the other hand, the Tu-204 and Superjets flew in the Red Wings airline for three hundred hours a month. Therefore, the motivation is of great importance. If there is another one or two motivated operators of MC-21, then I am sure that this will only increase the efficiency of operation. When Aeroflot became the first customer, all other enterprises of the air transport industry were engaged in seeing how the SSJ100 flies from the national air carrier. This played a role in the fate of the aircraft: both positive and negative. The positive role was that the national carrier bought planes, and that's good. Negative - they flew a little. Of course, you can rightly blame the Sukhoi Civil Aircraft for the poor organization of post-sales services at the initial stage, but it seems to me that part of the "blame" is certainly on the airline itself.

- Import substitution policy: The Government of the Russian Federation is steadily pursuing it. In this regard, how do you see the fate of MC-21? To what extent is it possible to use American components, including Pratt & Whitney engines?

- I think that we, of course, must make a machine with a gradual localization of all components. As a result of vigorous efforts, as part of the course of import substitution, the initial appearance of the aircraft was changed. Now at the MC-21 in a significant amount established domestic avionics. In my opinion, of course, it is possible and necessary to install, besides the PD-14 engine, a domestic auxiliary power unit (APU). (In addition, as far as I know, the domestic motor, it is unlikely to be launched from the Honeywell APU). The second theme is the interior. The Russian industry has all the possibilities to fully assume the production of interior, including chairs. In principle, the country has all the suppliers of on-board systems. The question is economic feasibility. Any replacement of a supplier is a cost and an increase in the cost of certification work. To go for this, one must have a reason: the quality should be no worse than that of foreign suppliers, and the price is lower. Then everyone will welcome import substitution. In addition, there are a number of countries with their markets, where Russian equipment is important, for example, Cuba.

- Recently, Presidents Putin and Trump held their first personal meeting, which lasted more than two hours. The leaders parted with the intention to continue the dialogue. As it seemed to me, over the last couple of years, despite the sanctions, American companies have been more positive about Russian programs than from Europeans. Do not you think that we are on the threshold of a certain renaissance in the relations between Moscow and Washington?

- We live in the era of globalization. Whether it's like Trump or not, it's hard to overstay all the industrial ties that have developed over the past forty years overnight. Links that lined the world ... To prohibit the transfer of production to countries with cheaper labor? I do not think this is the right policy. After all, we live in an era when human labor is increasingly replaced by mechanisms, robots. The notion of "digital economy" has appeared: in fact, it is a question of deserted technologies. Naturally, against this background there are always doubts: what is easier, to give a job to a robot or to transfer a line to another continent with a cheaper labor force? Such solutions promise to simplify the production process, and reduce the cost of producing a unit of production. Or, is it worth to carry from one continent to another, say, a titanium blank, in order to turn most of it into sawdust? Can it be more profitable to create production and process locally? If we reason with such a position on the relationship between Russia and America, they were, are and will be purely pragmatic. Business always looks at the opportunity to earn money, discover new markets, acquire new knowledge, technologies, skills, and so on. In the era of the Internet it is impossible to put an iron fence and live completely apart.

As for economic sanctions, experience shows that they stimulate those who are entrusted with. Iran lived under tough sanctions for a quarter of a century. Yes, so that managed to maintain in flight the "Boeing" despite the ban on the supply of spare parts to them. With the help of reverse engineering the Persians removed the drawings and mastered the production of the necessary components on their own sites. We learned how to restore, repair engines, units and so on. In a word, there are examples of how sanctions "contributed" to the processes of industrialization of individual countries of the world. In our case, the more sanctions, the more incentives to develop their own production, their industry. For aviation, engines and avionics are critical. Its market is small, so manufacturers will try to penetrate with their products to external. It turns out that sanctions are a double-edged weapon.

Look at what is happening in the agro-industrial complex: grain exports exceeded all conceivable figures. In Soviet times, we bought grain from Canada, 25 million tons, and now we export 40 million tons. In the store you will come - there are no more foreign cheeses and tomatoes, their place was taken by domestic products. All around are engaged in agriculture! I have to travel a lot around Russia. Flying over the Voronezh region, you notice: the whole earth is plowed! Recently was in Ulyanovsk - one time the land there were abandoned, but now everything is plowed up! Even in the Tver region, too, there are shifts in terms of the use of farmland. On the example of the country's agro-industrial complex, we see how gradually and steadily, there are shifts for the better. In aviation, the cycles are longer, and in order for positive shifts to become noticeable, more time is needed.

Market economy pushes entrepreneurs to develop those niches that are "voluntarily left" by the producers of countries, that they practice economic sanctions against other states. Proceeding from this understanding, we should also consider the prospects for US-Russian relations. The emergence of serial MC-21 in airlines and the gradual acceleration of the production rates of this and other domestic aircraft will make our air transport industry less dependent on foreign products.